Homeless Predictive Data

Arizona Housing Analytics Collaborative (AzHAC)

Arizona has three Continuum of Care (CoC) programs (i.e., Maricopa County, Pima County and Balance of State) throughout the state that collectively serve over 13,500 people experiencing sheltered and unsheltered homelessness – an increase of 23% overall of people experiencing homelessness since 2021 and a 60% increase in people experiencing unsheltered homelessness (ADOH, 2023). Also, the number of new people entering homelessness in Maricopa County alone (the most populous Arizona county) has grown and now is nearly double those who are successfully exiting to stable housing. In 2023, there were 19 new people entering homelessness for every 10 people who successfully exited (Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care, 2023). Yet, those experiencing housing instability and homelessness access services and resources across multiple –often siloed– systems and do not always end up in the state’s homeless service system; as such, policymakers and the homeless service system need an integrated data system comprised of linked administrative data across multiple systems to inform program and policy decisions. Likewise, the increase in both prevalence and incidence rates of homelessness suggests the need for a data-driven prevention strategy for identifying early warning indicators of becoming homeless and targeting individuals meeting these characteristics with prevention services.

In response to these data needs, the Arizona Housing Analytics Collaborative (AzHAC) formed in 2022 as a tri-university collaborative among Arizona State University (ASU), Northern Arizona University (NAU), and University of Arizona (U of A). AzHAC researchers conduct data analytics, predictive modeling, and qualitative inquiry around homelessness and housing to inform decision-making and care coordination across Arizona. Our current stakeholders include Arizona Department of Housing, Solari (manager of the Homeless Management Information System [HMIS] and Arizona 211 referral system), Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care (county homeless service system), Maricopa Association of Governments (including city of Phoenix), Data Warehouse Enterprise for Linkage-Arizona (DWEL-AZ; a consortium of state agencies), with additional interest from healthcare providers and others. With funding from the Garcia Family Foundation, Amazon Web Services’ Health Equity Initiative, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), AzHAC created and has sustained multiple computing environments to store, link, analyze, and disseminate various administrative and public data sources to inform homelessness decision-making and care coordination.

Sources:

Arizona Department of Housing (ADOH). (2023). State of Arizona PY2023-2024 HUD Annual Action Plan. Arizona Department of Housing.

Available at

Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care. (2023). Homelessness trends report: October-December 2023. Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care.  

Available at