Homeless Predictive Data

Arizona Housing Analytics Collaborative (AzHAC)

What we Do Monthly Project Summaries

ASU logo
NAU logo
UofA logo

The Arizona Housing Analytics Collaborative (AzHAC) is a tri-university collaborative among Arizona State University, Northern Arizona University, and University of Arizona. In partnership with community leaders and stakeholders, AzHAC is doing extensive work in data analytics, predictive modeling and qualitative inquiry around homelessness and housing to inform decision-making and care coordination.

AzHAC Status Update - June 2024

Data Analytics (Robert Wickham, Sara Shuman, George Runger and Kristin Ferguson leads)

  • Completing high-utilizer analysis with HMIS Maricopa County data (2017-2022) and cost analysis for MAG/DWEL/AHCCCS to identify characteristics and costs of high users by household composition 
  • Completing sequencing analysis to identify most commonly used HMIS program types;  includes racial/ethnic breakdowns of associations between time housed and returns to homelessness 
  • Completing system-level characteristics of HMIS Maricopa County (e.g., utilization rates of system by demographic and project types)
  • Completed analysis of qualitative findings from interviews/focus groups with 58 service providers and administrators across AZ on strategies and innovations to address homelessness as well as gaps/needs in services; infographics on innovations and gaps/needs available here

Predictive Modeling (George Runger lead)

  • Conducting analyses with linked Maricopa County HMIS data, Maricopa County evictions data and statewide 2-1-1 data to identify individuals/households at risk of homelessness/evictions
  • Developing additional predictive models to identify characteristics of HMIS consumers most likely to successfully exit homelessness and return to homelessness; sequences of programs most likely to contribute to successful exits from PSH; and measures of financial stress that might prevent eviction

Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) Housing Assessment Tool (Micaela Mercado lead)

  • Met with Department of Economic Security (DES) to share SDOH assessment tool using public data and sample DES use cases to demonstrate tool’s utility to inform service planning and provision
  • 10+ viewer licenses distributed to community partners for use of SDOH dashboard
  • Use cases to identify 1) areas of need and 2) economic hubs (economically viable areas with limited affordable housing) under development; expanding tool’s utility to healthcare and financial security

Ongoing Data Requests (Katie Gentry, Kristin Ferguson leads)

  • Working with Balance of State and Pima/TPCH CoCs on priority questions with their HMIS data
  • Working with Governor’s Interagency and Community Council Data & Accountability Workgroup to identify data sources to answer stakeholder questions about homelessness prevention/intervention
  • Reviewing credit bureau data to build predictive models to identify characteristics of consumers experiencing financial stress who are most likely to be evicted

Encampment Resolution Strategies-Pima, Yuma & Maricopa Counties (Sara Shuman, Keith Bentele leads)

Awarded HUD grant ($726,306) entitled Engaging community stakeholders and universities in identifying the state and effectiveness of homeless encampment resolution strategies in three Arizona counties for a 3-year project to identify/implement successful encampment resolution strategies in Pima, Yuma and Maricopa Counties; we were selected among 71 applications; kick-off meeting on 11/29 drew participation from over 2 dozen community partners statewide (Sara Shuman, NAU, PI)